[personal profile] aphar
http://music.guardian.co.uk/classical/story/0,,2283007,00.html

The legendary La Scala opera house in Milan has commissioned a full-length work to be based on [Gore's] book, An Inconvenient Truth, and the Oscar-winning documentary of the same title. ... La Scala's artistic director, Stephane Lissner, told a press conference the new opera had been commissioned from an Italian composer, Giorgio Battistelli. He said it would be staged in 2011.

Some people never learn. In 3 years, chances are the main issue will be global cooling, not global warming, so the opera would have to be rewritten...

Date: 2008-06-05 02:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allka.livejournal.com
What's a solar cycle and how long does it last?

Semka, I am curious about how you come to the views you have. I mean, we can evaluate the arguments from each side of the debate, or we can try to evaluate the sources that the arguments come from. I don't have the knowledge to evaluate the scientific side of the reasons you provide, though some things seem surprising to me (like trying to make a case on the basis of a very narrow range of data with high local fluctuations, or inferring that "high solar activity *in the current cycle* questions 100-year stretch of global warming evidence). But I am more surprised by your treatment of sources - we can always find something that will say anything, but for once, I've never heard of let's say ISTR until I googled it just now, and seem to ascribe more importance to who funds independent research than to the process of peer review.

That's actually the most fascinating thing to me in this whole debate: not that we disagree, but that we use very different processes to arrive at our conclusions. Which kills every hope of us ever coming to a consensus. Which makes the phenomenon of scientific consensus on the issue even more surprising: if all these experts agree (I am not talking journalists, activists, oil diggers and bleeding heart citizen), there is got to be something to it.

Ok, I said I was gonna stop, and I will try.

Date: 2008-06-05 03:27 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] aphar.livejournal.com
solar cycle is 9-14 years (11 year is the mean).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

A side note: Russian Imperial history has a cataclysm every 12 years:
1st line: 1905-1917-1929-1941 ("negative": revolutions, collectivization, Nazi invasion)
2nd line: 1944-1956-1968-1980-1991 ("positive": Red army crossed over into Europe, invaded Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Lithuania - a year too early - but, hey, solar cycles lengths differ)
:-)

100-year stretch of global warming evidence
IIUC, it's more like 30 years of evidence.
in the 70ies it was global cooling, not global warming.

As for sources, my diatribes against UN are intended mostly as a counterweight for those who hate "oil digger-funded research".

I do not like alarmists, especially those who already cried "wolf!" 30 years ago have have been proven wrong. There was a consensus then too, and it blew up - just like "кадавр удовлетворённый желудочно".

I am disgusted when scientists make huge normative statements (like we gotta reduce our energy consumption and switch from this or that mode of transportation) based on tenuous positive statements (like our computer models show that humans have an impact on the world climate).

I think Jenya said it much better than I did (yet another proof of the obvious - how lucky I am to have married such a brilliant beauty!)

ISTR = I seem to remember
IIUC = If I understand correctly

Date: 2008-06-05 03:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allka.livejournal.com
lol. take a look at this:

http://www.istr.org/

The International Society for Third-Sector Research (ISTR). I thought you were citing them. :)

I should have known better - we do a long of natural language disambiguation, and it seems that any random combination of four letters abbreviates something in each area of human activity.

And then there is this, though this one I looked up only now, would have tagged it as strange:

http://www.iiuc.ac.bd/

Date: 2008-06-05 03:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uzheletta.livejournal.com
lol! at least I learned something about ISTR :)))

ALka, enjoy Iceland!
love you very much.
-j.

Date: 2008-06-05 03:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allka.livejournal.com
"how lucky I am to have married such a brilliant beauty!"

Ok, I am delighted and relieved that you finally said something we can both agree on, and now I can go back to my work. :)

Date: 2008-06-05 03:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uzheletta.livejournal.com
Alka, i maybe stupid, but what's wrong with ISTR?
it's a world-wide society of scolars who share some interests.
it's not different from SRCD or any other professional societies.
why do think that they don't care about peer review?
i looked at their website and they seem just as fine as SRCD, Cogscie or any other professional society.
maybe I missed something important though, that you saw.
btw, there are cyles in solar activity :)

ISTR

Date: 2008-06-05 03:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allka.livejournal.com
I think Sam got both of us into the same trap.
See his reply to me and then my reply to him. :)

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