Forecast

Sep. 5th, 2022 02:51 pm

I dare to publicly forecast the near future:

Putin will make a titanic effort to stop the war ASAP, because time is working against him:

  • Europe is slowly but surely getting off the gas hook
  • The West, especially the US, is ramping up military production capabilities
  • Minor Ukrainian successes might be worrisome in a minor way

I wholeheartedly wish him a complete failure in whatever he does, including his "peace" efforts.

In quite a few languages these words are related:

LanguageWorkSlave
Greekδουλειάδούλος
Hebrewעֲבוֹדָהעֶבֶד
Russianработараб

In many European languages slave comes from Slav (via Latin).

Славяне были вольнолюбивым народом. Их часто угоняли в рабство, но и там они не работали…

История (лучшая за день!) повествует о том, что от русского мата афганцы разбегаются (а американский игнорируют).

Это ж как СА там порезвилась, что спустя 20 лет их помнят.

А русские этим гордятся...

Power

Aug. 17th, 2022 09:24 pm
According to Russell, lust for power is what drives people.

Thus, it is not surprising that any government exercises more power than it is entitled to by law and tries to expand it all the time.

The idea behind Separation of powers is that various branches should keep each other in check.

E.g., whenever the SCOTUS declares a law unconstitutional, we have a demonstration of a legislative over-reach attempt, stopped by the judiciary. Whenever that happens, we see that the system is working, and should rejoice.

On the other hand, when the opposite happens, it could be good or bad, depending on the law.

However, the recent outrage is the decision that reverted a previous decision which said "the government cannot do X", i.e., they can do X now.

Some SCOTUS decisions are wrong and should be overturned.

But granting the government powers that it has been explicitly denied before?! No way!

PS. I not interested in arguing whether abortion is murder (nope) or should be legal or not (maybe). This is not about abortion, but about government power grab.

... на этом месте после войны был женский лагерь военнопленных - в основном с западной Украины ...

конечно, не "военнопленных". но КОГО?!

это же не "раскулаченные" - тех переселяли семьями!

Антисемитские и анти-израильские "шутки" появляются на анекдот.ру всё чаще.

Для ясности: анекдоты типа "Рабинович нашёл кошелёк. Пересчитал деньги. Не хватает!" - не антисемитизм.

Антисемитизм - это когда евреев обвиняют в подрыве российской государственности и духовности и сравнивают израильские ответки Хамасу с обстрелами Мариуполя, Харькова и Одессы.

PS: Другие тоже заметили...

Goodhart's law says:

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

E.g., when repairmen are evaluated based on the number of support tickets they close, they stop helping each other and start causing trivial problems that they then triumphantly fix. When they are evaluated on the amount of time the equipment they are responsible for is not working, they start applying "quick fix band-aids" instead of long-term solutions.

Another example is war - after the UN criminalized war and aggression, no wars have been officially declared.

This did not stop the fighting, of course, it's just that Russia calls its current invasion of Ukraine a "special military operation" and Ukraine enacted martial law and a general mobilization of all male Ukrainian citizens between 18 and 60, but did not declare a war, calling it instead "a pre-war situation".

"The Impact of Posing with Cats on Female Perceptions of Male Dateability" appears to be a run-of-the-mill peer-reviewed paper, that would advance one's academic career a little bit more. It makes a sophisticated claim:

Women viewed men as less masculine when holding the cat; higher in neuroticism, agreeableness, and openness; and less dateable.

If you look at the actual pictures of two guys holding the same cat, you will quickly notice that the cat is clearly uncomfortable and tense, the men are not the owner, don't know how to pet it &c.

Nevertheless, the paper was written, reviewed and published. "Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice".

See also a discussion.

Auditing Shooting Rampage Statistics:
  • The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.29
  • The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by a civilian is 2.33
The difference is almost 12.

The average police response time to a 911 call is eleven minutes.

Uvalde: 376 police officers surrounding the rampage shooter on a pile of bleeding yet not yet dead bodies, with their backs to him preventing citizens from saving the pile of injured people from dying.

If the United States were to string together three consecutive incidents of rampage shooters getting plugged by private citizens within seconds, as happened in Greenwood Park Mall, and CNN were to give each of them the sorts of coverage they give to Uvalde, the rampage shooter dorks would be too scared to try it.

Imagine Cuba (or some other dictatorship that conducts perfunctory elections) claims that the elections are free and invites observers.

What do you think international observers would say about these "features"?

  • the only pre-requisite for voting is registering, which requires no ID
  • the only requirement for voting is a signature, which requires no ID
  • one can vote by mail, which requires no ID - and nothing at all

Do you think the observers will validate the elections?

PS. It is not enough to be honest, one must also look honest.

Stigler's law of eponymy says that no discovery is named after the discoverer.

TIL that Schrödinger cat was invented by Einstein in a letter to Schrödinger (he used a pile of explosives instead).

PS. And wiki confirms it...

Brainpower is like horsepower: a bad driver will end up in the gutter.
I was told yesterday that no republican candidate, who admits that Trump lost in 2020, has a chance in the current primaries. Is this true?!

I once had to talk with an Austrian co-worker, and it turned out that we cannot understand each other's English. We ended up speaking through an interpreter (our common boss, who spoke English natively).

An even more hilarious episode: a Québécois and a Parisienne could not understand each other's French, but a Russian bystander who studied French in high school understood both of them.

US withholds long range missiles from Ukraine because Russia warned that this will escalate the war.

This already happened before: during the Italian aggression against Ethiopia in 1935, the League of Nations imposed sanctions on Italy. However, the sanctions excluded oil and access to the Suez canal, because Italy warned that these will be considered causus belli. Thus the sanctions were ineffective.

А вот ещё: трибуны "поддержали" ребёнка, не заметившего фальстарт. Повторный забег он уже не бежал.
Григорий Юдин неожиданно сказал, что главная идея российской пропаганды не "верьте нам" а "не верьте никому, все врут" - поэтому надо спокойно сидеть жопой на диване и не рыпаться - правды всё равно нет (ну или как минимум её не узнаешь).

Это прекрасно перекликается с моральным релятивизмом западных либералов, которые, с одной стороны, не знают "кто есть женщина", а с другой борются с "cultural appropriation" (что должно, казалось бы, требовать объективного определения культуры, её аттрибутов, и её носителей).

Русские боты любят спрашивать, "почему Америке можно а нам - нельзя?!"
Во-первых, Америке тоже нельзя.
Во-вторых, когда Америка куда-то лезет, она это делает по-другому:
  1. Америка мочит диктаторов, а не демократически избранные правительства, сменяемые по результатам регулярных выборов.
  2. Америка приходит, чтобы уйти; Россия приходит навеки, раздавая паспорта.
  3. Поле Америки остаются Западная Германия и Южная Корея, а после России - Восточная Германия и Северная Корея.
Russians like to ask "why is okay for the US but not okay for us?!"
First of all, nope, it's not okay for the US either.
Second, when the US intervenes, it behaves very differently:
  1. US kicks dictators, not democratically elected governments that are replaced regularly as a result of elections.
  2. US comes to leave, Russia comes to stay.
  3. US leaves behind West Germany and South Korea, while Russia leaves behind East Germany and North Korea.
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